Market Week: May 30, 2016

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Last Week’s Headlines

• According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the second estimate of the gross domestic product for the first quarter increased at an annual rate of 0.8%. The first estimate for the fourth quarter had the GDP increasing at an annual rate of 0.5%. According to the report, the increase in the second estimate is primarily attributable to an adjustment in private inventory investment, which decreased less than originally estimated. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 1.4%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
• Speaking on a panel at Harvard University, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen intimated that interest rates may be increased in the coming months. “It’s appropriate, and I’ve said this in the past I think, for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.”
• Sales of new single family homes rose by 16.6% in April over March–the fastest pace in eight years–according to the Census Bureau. At an annual rate of 619,000, new home sales are 23.8% above the April 2015 estimate of 500,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April was $321,100; the average sales price was $379,800. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 243,000, which represents a supply of 4.7 months at the current sales rate.
• Further evidence of an improving real estate sector, the National Association of Realtors® reported that pending home sales rose 5.1% in April–their highest level since February 2006. The Pending Home Sales Index reached 116.3 in April following an upwardly revised 110.7 in March, and is 4.6% above April 2015. The index is based on the number of reported contract signings, with closing expected to occur within four to six weeks. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “The building momentum from the over 14 million jobs created since 2010 and the prospect of facing higher rents and mortgage rates down the road appear to be bringing more interested buyers into the market.”
• New orders for manufactured goods in April were better than expected, as the Census Bureau reported that orders for durable goods increased $7.7 billion, or 3.4%, from the prior month. Shipments of durable goods also increased 0.6% in April following two consecutive months of decreases. Unfilled orders were up 0.6% and new orders for nondefense capital goods (ranging from construction equipment to computers) increased 7.8%. However, excluding aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders actually decreased 0.8% and are down 4.1% over the past four months compared to the same four-month period last year.
• The trade deficit grew by roughly 3.4% in April from March as U.S. imports exceeded exports by $57.5 billion compared to the March balance of $55.6 billion. The Census Bureau’s advance report on international trade in goods showed April’s exports totaled $119.3 billion, with imports coming in at $176.8 billion. However, foreign trade picked up overall as imports increased by 2.3% over March, while exports grew by 1.8%.
• Consumers were more positive in their assessment of the economy in May, according to the latest report from the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased from 89.0 in April to 94.7 in May. Both the Current Economic Conditions Index (109.9) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (84.9) increased in May. According to the report, “there have only been four prior months since the January 2007 peak in which the Sentiment Index was higher than in May 2016, all recorded at the start of 2015.”
• For the week ended May 21, there were 268,000 claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.6% from the prior week’s unrevised level. The advance number for continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ended May 14 was 2,163,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Following the Memorial Day holiday, the week begins with a report on consumer income and spending, which includes the core personal consumption expenditures index–a closely watched indicator of inflationary trends. The week also brings the latest information on the manufacturing sector as revealed through surveys of purchasing managers. The week closes with the important employment situation report for May, which includes information on the unemployment rate, payrolls, and average hourly earnings.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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